Trump Goes Electric?

Like most Americans, I spent the weekend obsessing over the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. My first reaction to the shooting surprised me: I was horrified. There is nobody in American life I like less than Trump, so I found myself both surprised that I actually don’t want him (or anybody else) hurt, and reassured that, despite my utter loathing of the man, my humanity appears to remain intact. That’s not saying much, of course, because the reason I want to see him unharmed is so that he can, eventually, live out a long and healthy life in prison. (Not that there’s any chance of that happening, but my fantasy life involves more than just inputting creative search terms on YouPorn.)

The analogy comes later.

And, like most Americans, my secondary thoughts went to the shooter and his motivations. I would have been shocked – amazed, actually – if the shooter had turned out to be a disgruntled Democrat trying to “save democracy” or whatever. I will be surprised if it turns out the shooter had much of a political motive at all. For all the hand-wringing about the nation’s overheated rhetoric, we simply haven’t seen much leftwing political violence – yet. It could obviously happen, and if you want to call some of the BLM marches “leftwing violence,” I won’t quibble with you, but I’m thinking more of the “Weather Underground” type leftwing bombings from the 60’s and 70’s. None of that is happening.

I’m obviously no expert, but I did study the subject a bit when writing my last book. The perpetrators of these kinds of spectacular mass shootings in this country usually wind up falling into a type. They’re almost always committed by young white men. Generally, these are social outcasts, often the victims of bullying. While the FBI hasn’t offered any kind of motive yet, early reports seem to suggest that, at the very least, the shooter wasn’t some radical lefty taking his marching orders from Dark Brandon, as Representative Mike Collins said in a tweet.

The gun was purchased legally, just like most of the guns involved in these kinds of mass shootings. It was an AR-!5 style rifle, weapon of choice for mass shooters everywhere. The shooter appears to have acted alone, again, just like most mass shootings. He had no criminal record, which isn’t uncommon. No reported mental illness, also not uncommon. At this point, it seems like we have just another run-of-the-mill shooting in a nation where mass shootings are as common as sunsets. The only difference, so far, is that this time the target was famous.

Afterwards, everybody immediately jumped to blame their favorite bogeymen, myself included. I’ve seen blame assigned to Democrats, mental health, bad parenting, the media, and, for some reason, DEI. Not me. “Fucking guns,” I wrote within moments of hearing the news, “Fuck these fucking guns.” Was that the most helpful to say in that moment? Not really. Are guns even the problem here? I mean… yes.

I’m not going to launch into a long stemwinder about gun control, but I would just make the point that, while it’s true that somebody hellbent on killing somebody else will find a way, it’s a lot more difficult to build a bomb – as this guy was apparently trying to do – than it is to walk into Joe Bob’s Gun Shop and throw down a few hundred dollars for a killing machine. This is the same reason why having a gun in the home increases the chances that somebody in that home will commit suicide. It’s just a lot easier to impulsively kill yourself when the means are readily available.

Politically speaking, I think everybody immediately intuited that the shooting was an unbelievable gift to Trump. Certainly the candidate himself understood it, taking the moment to create a breathtaking photo op for himself, fist raised, blood trickling down his face, surrounded by Secret Service. Had the shooter missed entirely, the story would have been big but not so big. And, obviously, had the shooter’s aim been a little better, we’d be having an entirely different conversation.

Trump’s metamorphosis to living martyr is now complete. He’s been setting the table for years, railing against all the people and institutions arrayed against him. The indictments, the civil finding of liability in the E. Jean Carroll case, the fraud cases, the lost election, etc. etc. etc. He has positioned himself as “the most persecuted man in American history,” which has a certain ring of truth to it if only because he’s such a blatant fraud, cheat, and general scoundrel who surrounds himself with similarly minded crooks. Now, though, as the survivor of an assassination attempt, his previous whining has taken on the air of premonition.

What does it all mean for the outcome of the election. Impossible to say at this point, but I’m guessing “not very much.” We’re still four months off, and as we’ve seen the last couple weeks, what feels tectonic one moment feels passé the next. So I obviously don’t know the long-term effect, but our national ADD won’t let us focus on one story for more than a few days, so I’m guessing the incident will be largely irrelevant in two week’s time.

That being said, Trump gave an interview to the Washington Examiner’s Salena Zito in which he said he ripped up the convention speech he was planning to give – “a humdinger” he called it, in favor of a complete rewrite:

Talking as he boarded his plane in Bedminster, New Jersey, for Milwaukee, where the Republican National Convention starts Monday and lasts through Thursday, Trump said his speech will meet the moment that history demands. “It is a chance to bring the country together. I was given that chance.”

Remarkable words from a man whose entire political career is predicated on division and hate. I’m skeptical that Trump will change course now. Imagine a Donald Trump standing before a MAGA crowd talking about “healing,” “unity,” “bipartisanship.” When the cheers and the chants of “U-S-A” and “Lock him up” dry up, will he be able to resist playing to his crowd’s base desires? Will they treat him the way Bob Dylan’s fans did in Newport, when he strode out on the stage with an electric guitar? Dylan wasn’t afraid to alienate his fans. I doubt Trump shares his courage.

This week’s Republican National Convention will point to the direction Trump’s campaign is likely to take in the months to come. Are we going to see the kinder, gentler Trump? And will it matter if the new Trump pushes the same horrific policies as the old? Overheated rhetoric may be bad but sending the National Guard into America’s cities to round up millions of immigrants and put them in internment camps is worse. Promoting white Christian Nationalism is worse. Replacing civil servants with MAGA loyalists is worse. Withdrawing from NATO is worse. Trump may feel himself graced by God, and although I have my doubts that we will see any change of heart from a man, like with the heart three sizes too small. While I’m dubious that the times really are a-changin’, if Trump truly does change course in word and deed, I, too, will consider the assassination attempt providential.