As I was reading, I kept hoping to hear more about the connection between their poor poker instincts and their political acumen. Do you think any of the weaknesses that let you and other skilled poker players fleece them translate into strategic political weaknesses? Especially if we assume some of these same bros are the grifters runnin…
As I was reading, I kept hoping to hear more about the connection between their poor poker instincts and their political acumen. Do you think any of the weaknesses that let you and other skilled poker players fleece them translate into strategic political weaknesses? Especially if we assume some of these same bros are the grifters running MAGA PACs, GOTV operations, media, etc?
For one example: the recent gloomy mood for Harris’s odds seems to have been catalyzed by a sudden plunge in her odds a few weeks ago on the crypto betting site polymarket (which is linked to Peter Thiel). This shift was abrupt, large in magnitude, and didn’t seem connected to any real news. It seems to be linked to ~$30 million in bets from a few “whale” accounts.
People suspect that this was designed to demoralize democrats and lead to bad news cycles and possibly prepare the ground for post election claims of fraud and legal challenges (I agree). But what if this was a terrible strategy and backfires? Democrats viewing themselves as underdogs may re-double their efforts to vote and improve turnout in a mirror image reverse of overconfident liberals in 2016. Some people who might have done a protest vote for Stein or write-in might reconsider. A (small) portion of lazy MAGA bros may figure it’s in the bag and stay home.
Sometimes these people we assume are playing 12-dimensional chess are just…not very good at regular chess…
As I was reading, I kept hoping to hear more about the connection between their poor poker instincts and their political acumen. Do you think any of the weaknesses that let you and other skilled poker players fleece them translate into strategic political weaknesses? Especially if we assume some of these same bros are the grifters running MAGA PACs, GOTV operations, media, etc?
For one example: the recent gloomy mood for Harris’s odds seems to have been catalyzed by a sudden plunge in her odds a few weeks ago on the crypto betting site polymarket (which is linked to Peter Thiel). This shift was abrupt, large in magnitude, and didn’t seem connected to any real news. It seems to be linked to ~$30 million in bets from a few “whale” accounts.
People suspect that this was designed to demoralize democrats and lead to bad news cycles and possibly prepare the ground for post election claims of fraud and legal challenges (I agree). But what if this was a terrible strategy and backfires? Democrats viewing themselves as underdogs may re-double their efforts to vote and improve turnout in a mirror image reverse of overconfident liberals in 2016. Some people who might have done a protest vote for Stein or write-in might reconsider. A (small) portion of lazy MAGA bros may figure it’s in the bag and stay home.
Sometimes these people we assume are playing 12-dimensional chess are just…not very good at regular chess…