Crappy New Year!

There’s not much point in wishing all of you a happy new year. On a national level, 2026 is likely to be bad. Possibly very bad. If this year was all about unleashing the Trump agenda on America, the coming one will be about consolidation and entrenchment. There will be more abuses and atrocities, more murders on the open seas, more unconstitutional activity, more political violence. Trump will slip further into delusion. By this time next year, it’s entirely possible the country will be at war with, for some reason, Venezuela.

On the other hand, we’re seeing sustained pushback from nearly every court, aside from the one we call supreme. Thankfully, the administration has, eventually, acceded to the courts. Whether that continues into the coming year is an open question. We’re also seeing resistance emerge from, of all places, MAGA loyalists. At least a few Trump congresspeople took stands against the president in 2025. The Epstein fiasco hurt Trump among his base, and it’s possible we’ll see further defections as Republicans jockey for position in a post-Trump world.

The emerging MAGA civil war will accelerate, with JD Vance likely to emerge as its winner and, as such, as the MAGA king-in-waiting. In some respects this is good news because Vance has about as much charisma as a wood chip. But he’s a quick study and just as amoral as the man he seeks to replace. He’s also smarter.

As Trump’s popularity continues falling, as it will in 2026, Trump will do everything he can to reverse his fortunes. He’ll continue to dole out carrots to his supporters, but the sticks he wields against his enemies are likely to grow heavier. Blue states will suffer for their opposition and intransigence in the form of funding cutoffs and military occupation. (Had I written the last part of that sentence before the election, I would have been called an alarmist.)

Democrats have found some footing of late. With several high-profile Democratic wins, particularly in Virginia and New York City, Democrats appear poised for big gains in the 2026 midterms. Those midterms, however, won’t come until the end of the year, which means there are many months of electoral mischief-making before the first votes are counted. We also have no idea how the administration will respond to an electoral loss, although if their last loss in 2020 is any indication, it’s likely to be bad.

The Trump gerrymandering project hit a significant snag when Indiana Republicans refused to back their proposed redistricting plan. I’m confident they won’t stop trying. We’re likely to see at least a couple states attempt the same stunt. Which will mean Democratic states will respond in kind, which will mean less representative democracy for everybody. The shining city on a hill may well be dimmer at the end of 2026 than the beginning.

How far we fall this year obviously depends on many factors, many of them unpredictable, even unknowable. What happens with the economy? What happens on the world stage? What black swan event flutters into view? We already know how this administration responds to adversity. We saw it during the last administration when a new virus popped up in China. A million Americans died, and that was when Robert Fauci led the nation’s health response instead of the human gravel pit currently in charge; though it’s unlikely we’ll see another pandemic this year, it’s worth noting that RFK’s equivalent leads every federal agency.

2026 will be a bad year for the nation. That does not mean it need be so for any of us on a personal level. And it’s on the personal level that we’re likely to have the greatest impact. Person to person, neighbor to neighbor, friend to friend. I’ll continue advocating for kindness in 2026.

Wielded well, kindness can be our sharpest weapon against the hate being spread in our name. When we fight fire with fire, as I’ve heard so many people insist we do, we end up with a lot more fire. I’m not that interested in burning everything down so I’m going to do my best to choose kindness when I might otherwise lash out. I don’t expect it work all the time – possibly not even most of the time – but I find it easier to look at myself in the mirror when I at least make the effort. This year, I’ll also be advocating for music and pie.

I wish you all a magnificent 2026, in whichever ways you find magnificence. Whatever challenges come this year aren’t yours to bear alone. Be there for each other. Allow others to be there for you, which is oftentimes the more difficult task. Give yourself space when you need it and rush headlong into the crowd when they need it. Maybe write something. A few words. A memory. Do it just for yourself. Maybe make something. Allow yourself to be large and small. Allow yourself to be hard and soft. Allow yourself. The coming year is likely to be bad. But good things will happen. Maybe many of them. My wish for you is that, in these bad times, you remain alert for the good.