Has anybody read The Fourth Turning? It’s a 1997 book about the cycles of history, specifically as they relate to American history. The authors, William Strauss and Neil Howe, posit that history is cyclic. Each cycle, or saeculum, lasts approximately one hundred years and consists of four phases: High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis.
I encountered this theory a number of years ago when people started to talk alot about Millennials, and suddenly the idea of named generations became a popular topic again. Strauss and Howe don't just advance a cyclical theory of history, but also a theory of generations to go along with it. They define four archetypes: Prophet, Nomad, Hero, and Artist (in previous books they were Idealist, Reactive, Civic, and Adaptive) and assign them to generations on a rotating cycle based on which point in the historical era they came of age in.
So you and I are both Gen-X, Michael (I'm two years younger than you) and we are supposedly the Nomad (Reactive) generation. The generation that were children during an Awakening, young adults during an Unraveling, and now middle aged during a Crisis. The description of us advanced by the theory seems to fit us pretty well, but then again we were one of the generations the theory was designed to fit to, so I suppose it would.
It's hard to argue against the idea, though, that we grew up under-protected and came of age in an era of cynicism and weakening institutions – we just thought that was a good thing! A healthy disregard of authority and killing the sacred cows and all that. Satirical comedy experienced a Renaissance, as you well know. :-) Little did we know how we would soon start to appreciate the value of those institutions – at least, some of us would – once the social agents of chaos started stomping all over them and planning to dance on their graves. I never would have dreamed in my young adulthood in the 1990s – a period that felt so bright and optimistic – that we would end up in a place like this. This next "High" period can't come soon enough!
It seems like some of the crisis can be attributed less to policy and more to hatred of the other side. On many major issues there is strong majority support - abortion rights (60-65%), taxing the wealthy (80-90%), gun control measures (60-90%), investing in renewal energy (65%), support for gay marriage (60-70%). How does the country agree on a huge host of issues, yet have elections that are basically 50-50? It seems like one side has effectively used a few wedge issues and hatred for the other side to gain power and then enact unpopular rules. It seems like we have millions of people voting for politicians that oppose a lot of issues they support and doing so because they hate the other side. Of course, if we had a straight popular vote for president, a Senate that didn't favor rural interests, and an un-gerrymandered House, I'm not sure the crisis would be nearly as severe as it is.
I think we’re in crisis because Capitalism and White Supremacy can no longer deliver the usual outcomes for the people it has always benefited in the past. Neither group can do the right thing - it is antithetical to their religion.
The reason why voting rights, reproductive rights, affirmative actions, and current living history (Ruby Bridges is still alive ya’ll) are being attacked is an attempt to scream “Jumanji” and make it 1950’s again. It’s not going to work but watching other people freak out and suffer will make them happy so here we go.
Capitalists know their end is coming and instead of trying to land the plane they are going to take the Dow to the highest altitude and hope they can jump out at the top before the plan crashes. Before the people finally figure out that the rich should pay their fair taxes, the capitalist will move to places they can avoid takes. Don’t worry, they won’t give up their citizenship, just in case a war breaks out in their new home.
I’m going to keep voting but this comment is as close as I will get to any activism. I can’t influence these folks. It’s just best I keep an eye on the horizon and hunker down.
Sobering and scary as heck. I’m not sure I have the wherewithal to read the book, too anxiety making. so if you can give us the cliff notes via one of your brilliant encapsulations, I’d be very grateful!
I recently saw a pretty intense play at our local black box theater called Heroes of the Fourth Turning (by Will Arbery) which drew heavily from that book. I haven't read the book but the play was fascinating, especially since I live in a very politically purple area. It resonated heavily but was also really hard to watch. I recommend it, though.
I guess I need to add Strauss’ latest to the book pile… would love to have some sense as to how/when this madness will end. The suspense is literally killing me.
I just bought the audiobook, with, maybe, a lot of trepedation.
I encountered this theory a number of years ago when people started to talk alot about Millennials, and suddenly the idea of named generations became a popular topic again. Strauss and Howe don't just advance a cyclical theory of history, but also a theory of generations to go along with it. They define four archetypes: Prophet, Nomad, Hero, and Artist (in previous books they were Idealist, Reactive, Civic, and Adaptive) and assign them to generations on a rotating cycle based on which point in the historical era they came of age in.
So you and I are both Gen-X, Michael (I'm two years younger than you) and we are supposedly the Nomad (Reactive) generation. The generation that were children during an Awakening, young adults during an Unraveling, and now middle aged during a Crisis. The description of us advanced by the theory seems to fit us pretty well, but then again we were one of the generations the theory was designed to fit to, so I suppose it would.
It's hard to argue against the idea, though, that we grew up under-protected and came of age in an era of cynicism and weakening institutions – we just thought that was a good thing! A healthy disregard of authority and killing the sacred cows and all that. Satirical comedy experienced a Renaissance, as you well know. :-) Little did we know how we would soon start to appreciate the value of those institutions – at least, some of us would – once the social agents of chaos started stomping all over them and planning to dance on their graves. I never would have dreamed in my young adulthood in the 1990s – a period that felt so bright and optimistic – that we would end up in a place like this. This next "High" period can't come soon enough!
It seems like some of the crisis can be attributed less to policy and more to hatred of the other side. On many major issues there is strong majority support - abortion rights (60-65%), taxing the wealthy (80-90%), gun control measures (60-90%), investing in renewal energy (65%), support for gay marriage (60-70%). How does the country agree on a huge host of issues, yet have elections that are basically 50-50? It seems like one side has effectively used a few wedge issues and hatred for the other side to gain power and then enact unpopular rules. It seems like we have millions of people voting for politicians that oppose a lot of issues they support and doing so because they hate the other side. Of course, if we had a straight popular vote for president, a Senate that didn't favor rural interests, and an un-gerrymandered House, I'm not sure the crisis would be nearly as severe as it is.
This kind of commentary is why I subscribed. Thank you.
I think we’re in crisis because Capitalism and White Supremacy can no longer deliver the usual outcomes for the people it has always benefited in the past. Neither group can do the right thing - it is antithetical to their religion.
The reason why voting rights, reproductive rights, affirmative actions, and current living history (Ruby Bridges is still alive ya’ll) are being attacked is an attempt to scream “Jumanji” and make it 1950’s again. It’s not going to work but watching other people freak out and suffer will make them happy so here we go.
Capitalists know their end is coming and instead of trying to land the plane they are going to take the Dow to the highest altitude and hope they can jump out at the top before the plan crashes. Before the people finally figure out that the rich should pay their fair taxes, the capitalist will move to places they can avoid takes. Don’t worry, they won’t give up their citizenship, just in case a war breaks out in their new home.
I’m going to keep voting but this comment is as close as I will get to any activism. I can’t influence these folks. It’s just best I keep an eye on the horizon and hunker down.
Michael, I would read your writing only for the subscription prompts. Don’t get me wrong, I like it all. But those subscription prompts. Oy!
They’re the prize in the box of delicious Cracker Jacks. 🥜
Sobering and scary as heck. I’m not sure I have the wherewithal to read the book, too anxiety making. so if you can give us the cliff notes via one of your brilliant encapsulations, I’d be very grateful!
I recently saw a pretty intense play at our local black box theater called Heroes of the Fourth Turning (by Will Arbery) which drew heavily from that book. I haven't read the book but the play was fascinating, especially since I live in a very politically purple area. It resonated heavily but was also really hard to watch. I recommend it, though.
I guess I need to add Strauss’ latest to the book pile… would love to have some sense as to how/when this madness will end. The suspense is literally killing me.