“I’m angry,” Martha said this morning. “I’m angry that this is the choice. I think his government has done a great job but I’m angry we don’t have a better choice.” Needless to say, I agree. Thursday night’s debate was an unmitigated disaster for President Joe Biden. He appeared ancient, disoriented and, at times, incoherent. The question now turns to: what are we supposed to do?
For fuck sake DIMS, pivot your campaign focus from wasting time on replacing Biden and focusing like nerds on his record.
Instead…
Focus on your new battle campaign strategy book the GOP wrote for you. It’s called Project 2025. Hire more former GOP members as interpreters (like Stuart Stevens, Tim Miller, Michael Steele) instead of wasting time hiring super delegates….
Team Biden should stop treating Trump as a typical candidate. He's not. Focus on Jan 6 insurrection with Trump as its leader. He didn't accept the results. Alito and Thomas are Trump colluders and enablers of dictatorship. Trump's 2016 ties to Russia and Trump's appeasement of Putin. Trump is running for dictator allied with Putin, not President.
"This election is not about Joe Biden. I’m sorry, but it’s not. It’s about protecting the Republic from another four years of chaos, abuse, and lies. It’s about protecting American democracy from somebody who will have no qualms up blowing it up if he believes it serves his interests. It’s about holding back the Christian Nationalists Trump has aligned himself with. It’s about preserving our institutions and our alliances. "
THIS is the important part. Clutch pearls and bed-wet all y'all want, but I'll be voting to preserve ACTUAL FRIGGIN DEMOCRACY. I'll be voting for the rights of all of the women, queer and POC I know -- including my kid, who is all of the above. I'll be voting for the party that wants to make billionaires pay their fair share, rather than the conman who wants to give them even MORE tax breaks. There is no other choice. If
This is why you're a 2nd rate actor, or whatever you are at this point. You can't understand a champion mentality. Winners win. Democrats need to start working on their long game now. They've always sucked at it, that's what got us here. They've got to figure out who is next in 2028 and start shoving them to the front of the line. Right now President Biden is the only answer.
Jesus, drink some chamomile tea and take a bath. Then go outside, go for a walk. After that, hang out with your cat, no phone or TV. Drink lots of water. When you collect yourself again, spend some time in your journal writing about how other people could have different opinions than your own, and that does not tie them to “winners” or “losers.” Take five deep breaths.
Whoa whoa whoa... I'm a 3rd rate actor! It seems like you're pretty upset and that's fine but I will remind everybody that I don't tolerate insults to anybody on here. I was going to say "least of all me," but I actually don't care that much if you insult me. I'm used to it. But I do try to keep this place as respectful as possible and I hope you can do the same.
Yes, I do. He shared his opinion, and I responded. I see the GOP failing lockstep behind the WORST candidate, the worst man we could ever imagine, and how do Democrats respond? Whining, quitting, and general histrionics about their own President who has dragged us back from the edge of the abyss and succeeded is accomplishing more than any modern day President. They are still the same men on paper as they were before the debate. Trump says something horrifying every time he speaks. PRESIDENT Biden was over prepped to the point of exhaustion after a brutal schedule back and forth overseas, crammed him full of stats and numbers (to memorize), and clearly told to speak fast. He's better when he's just himself. It's easy to "win" a debate when you're not actually saying anything factual and you're just a carnival barker.
Also, something I haven't seen mentioned, the camera angles and staging made the President look spaced out. They had the podiums on an angle slightly facing each other so when he would turn to look at the moderators in disbelief when Trump was lying it was unflattering look.
Amy, you have much on your plate, but sounds like you are persistent and have somehow managed to get some help from our bureaucratic system. Depending on where you live, if you have a Democratic Congressman for your district, don’t hesitate to ask them for help. They can get access to many agencies to address your needs. Best to you and your family.
The guy you saw Thursday is a man who is successfully leading the country.
Why isn't the media screaming about how everything Trump said was a lie?
I'm a 51 year old, auDHD diagnosed, mother of three disabled kids. Our family is currently on the brink of bankruptcy due to medical debt. My oldest is on SSDI and likely will never work. My middle is agoraphobic and hasn't left the house in about two years and I'll be back in the red tape game to see if we can secure SSDI for her; and we are struggling to get our youngest into a therapeutic day school.
I grew up pretty damn fast when I realized what cards we were dealt. I understand frustration. I understand fighting tooth and nail against a system that wants to fuck you over. Certainly others have had more difficult struggles but after all these years I've toughened up.
And now we all need to roll with the punches. No more hand wringing - like what the fuck does that get us? I could have pretended one day my neurospicy brain was going to straighten out and the world would be easy for me to navigate but a fact is a fact. It's not going to happen for me who has (semi) successfully navigated this fucked up, ableistic world we live in. It's certainly not going to happen for my kids who just cannot manage "masking to make it." So I HAVE NO CHOICE. There are days where I scream and cry alone in my car because how the hell can I protect them for the rest of my life when things are this ugly? If that fucker wins how long until they strip away the meager allowance my kid has to live on? Until the thousands of dollars of drugs we need for them to just exist will be out of reach? Until there is no where for them as adults to live safely and cared for?
But I can't cry every day; I have work to do.
I respect you, your intelligence, and your talent. You've brought me joy since I found out about The State when I was around 19 years old. My husband and I still do dance moves poached from the Saturday sketch from Stella - "Slow motion riders fly the colours of the day..." We bought your children's books for our kids. I would be a paid subscriber here but I'm no longer able to give because of said financial issues. I love reading all your essays because you make me laugh and think. I share many of them with others.
I know, I know you'll vote blue. I know you'll do what you can. I just felt the need to demonstrate where I'm coming from. No one is coming to save me and mine. We have to accept the hand we are dealt and fight until our last breath. Joe is our guy. A fact is a fact. I'm glad to have you by our side. Now let's goooooo!
So sorry you're dealing with that and absolutely no guilt about not being a paid subscriber. I make this content free with the hopes that enough people who enjoy AND are able to afford it will subscribe but if not, no worries at all. For me, it's enough to have a place to write and converse. I was wonder if I could share you post - maybe on Twitter (no names, of course). Not sure if I will or I won't but I think your post is a beautiful example of why so many people do not want Trump to win.
You've made a compelling and cogent argument. I'm convinced as well there should be a better candidate. The job itself probably destroys health. The only reason Trump escaped so many negative aspects of the job is because he saw it as an extension of his persona and brand instead of the difficult political welding process that burns away the color from people's hair and cauterizes souls. And so I'm that way the President is up against the clock of his own spring accelerated by the gravity of the position.
I'm sold. I was sold in '20. But there wasn't another candidate and so I voted for Joe and his team. Thank Ceiling Cat for that team. Masterful work. But as far as I know its not a team position...unless it is. And that's where we're at. The team in place (read the Democratic Party and the Administration) have so far made their play. Unless a radical, fundamental change occurs we must vote for Joe. I don't think it's right, I know it isn't good for Joe the man (it's probably killing him), and the outcome might be placed in jeopardy. That's the calculus, change the candidate - risk losing, don't change the candidate - risk winning.
It didn't wear on Trump because he's lazy. That's why he accomplished so little, spending a ridiculous amount of time golfing, tweeting, watching TV, browsing social media, and traveling to rallies, instead of actually governing. Most of his energy was spent trying to break down the guardrails that constrain the executive, and weaken our institutions.
And c'mon, we all know it's a team position. Just keep in mind that if everyone is correct who wants to make it sound like Biden is really a senile old man an that this has been nefariously hidden from us all this time (I don't buy that, but ...), then that's only more confirmation that the team is what needs to be sustained.
I'm not and never have said he's senile. I'm saying the man is old, his immune system isn't as strong, his joints are worn, his epidermal layer is delicate, he doesn't keep muscle like he used to, I bet his appetite and digestion aren't the same anymore. Because of time. Because of stress. As anyone who's ever really been President has experienced instead of playacting as one.
I'm not even saying he can't do it, I'm saying that he's playing with fire. Like another great liberal that happened to be on the Supreme Court. I thought wisdom came with age.
Finally, he has my vote, but he also has my worries.
Biden's people know that releasing his delegates and opening up the convention without endorsing Harris will rip the party apart and ensure defeat. But, they also know that Harris has even a less likely path to election victory if she is the nominee.
So how about a scheme like this: Harris agrees not to throw her hat into the ring, and in return, after election day, Biden resigns. Harris is POTUS for almost two months and gets her name in the history books....
This strikes me as an awful lot of assumptions. They don't KNOW "Harris has even a less likely path to election victory," they know that confronting Joe about his frailties and convincing him to step down will be awkward, hard, and painful, and using "there are no other options" as an excuse to avoid that.
Here's what we definitely do KNOW:
While I agree with Michael that the Biden *administration* has done a rather good job over the last four years, it is undeniable that he's lost a step (or two or three). Just pull up YouTube videos of Biden's campaign speeches from 2020 to now and it is jaw-dropping.
A large majority of US voters have been telling pollsters they think Biden is too old, yet party elites dismiss this as "ageism." I'm tired of being gaslight into thinking someone holding the hardest job in the world past the age several of my grandparents were already DEAD is a good idea. Late in life, the curve of physical and mental decline (and risk of death btw) increases exponentially every year. The difference between 82 and 86 is nowhere near the same as 72 -> 76 or similar younger intervals.
Most mainstream election forecast models have Biden's odds ranging from around 50% (538) to 35% (Nate Silver independent model) to even lower (I believe the Economist model had Trump at *80%* likely to win. Keep in mind, polls overstated Democratic support in both 2016 and 2020; if a similar dynamic is playing out now we're royally fucked.
And all of this was based on data BEFORE the disastrous debate! Those clips of Biden freezing and saying "we beat Medicare" are going to play on an infinite loop of attack ads from now until November. Ain't no way the few persuadable voters left see that and think "Sign me up!" Sticking with Biden (who like Michael, I will vote for if that is my Democratic option) seems like a nearly guaranteed defeat.
Is Harris the best politician? No. But I'd take her odds over Joe.
What about others nominated at the convention? Sure, this path risks tearing the party apart if factions can't come to a consensus, but again, we are currently LOSING to a sociopath who poses an existential threat to this country.
The time to play it safe is when you're comfortably ahead. The time to throw a Hail Mary is when you're far behind. I would much rather us gamble with Candidate X and MAYBE lose than stick with Joe and almost certainly lose.
Before the debate, this was actually the scenario I expected to play out. Biden would be elected and then step down, giving Kamala the reigns. But I don't understand why you would say she'd only be president for two months? You think he'd resign BEFORE inauguration? That wouldn't make any sense because that seems like something that could legally be fought in court and with the Supreme Court as compromised as it is, she would inevitably lose
Excellent. But telling us that you are voting for wet socks rather than find out why the likes of Scott Adams et al strongly endorse Trump is just fiddling while Rome burns. You now know Fine People was a hoax. Maybe get behind the screen (of your "trusted" news sources) and see what a significant number of smart people are seeing. You may still not be convinced but at least it will be after seeing the other side.
And maybe he still might not be the best candidate - but he might be better than a juiced up old man - and a pile of wet socks
Bamba, don't buy into the "Fine People was a hoax". It wasn't. What Trump did was claim that many of the Nazis and White Nationalists at that rally were actually not Nazis and White Nationalists but very fine people trying to protect our history. The fact that many people have decided to phrase that as "he called Nazis very fine people" may be technically inaccurate and even misleading if you don't know the context.
But most people did and still do know the context, and what's telling is that it wasn't until a few years afterward that the pro-Trump punditry acted like they dug up some hidden nugget so that they could re-cast it as "Oh look, he said right there the White Nationalists should be totally condemned! It's a hoax!" We all knew he said that at the time. Nobody hid it. We also knew that he said it in his second go-around on the matter, after being criticized and browbeaten for the way he handled it in the beginning, which was to portray a Nazi rally as a completely respectable protest movement in which, sure, there were a few Nazis and bad people like that, but there were also Antifa, so it all evened out.
What Trump was criticized for at the time was his failure to unequivocally condemn a White Nationalist rally and instead try to draw a false moral equivalence, and then only, almost reluctantly, offering a condemnation after trying to claim that they accounted for a less significant portion of the protesters than the very fine Confederate history buffs who just wanted statues from the Jim Crow era preserved for posterity. It was a standard case of re-framing the controversy after the fact to claim it was "a hoax".
For the record, we saw this regularly with Trump. After what we all saw January 6th, everyone pointed to the one word in Trump's incitement speech – "peacefully!" – as proof that he didn't actually incite the crowd. "It was a hoax by anti-Trumpers!" And yet that was an obvious little cover-your-ass nugget thrown in at the end, after most people had already begun marching toward the capital in a fury, to give him some kind of plausible deniability.
When COVID popped up in China and was clearly headed our way, Trump claimed that it was no big deal and that all of the clamoring and the worrying and the fussing was just a hoax by Democrats to tank his wonderful economy and keep him from getting re-elected. So people began saying that Donald Trump claimed COVID was a Democrat hoax. His supporters then responded with, "Hey, he didn't say COVID was a hoax! He said it was a hoax that it was a big deal!" What most would call a distinction without a difference – but to Republicans, it was yet another "hoax" against Trump.
When the Mueller report came back, it documented numerous contacts between the Trump campaign and Russian nationals, and that the Trump campaign willingly received assistance from them. But Mueller didn't feel like he could make a case that Trump himself intentionally acted to assist the efforts, and so he declined to find him prosecutable for *criminal conspiracy* – a crime which has a very high bar of evidence – not collusion, which is an informal term not corresponding to an actual crime.
He did, however, all but recommend Trump be prosecuted for obstruction of justice, finding that the facts met all the requirements for a prosecutable case. But he decided from the beginning that he wouldn't recommend a prosecution regardless of what he found, because Trump was a sitting president and DOJ policy is to leave it up to Congress to initiate impeachment proceedings. Then his AG Bill Barr went to Congress two weeks before releasing the report and told a series of lies and misleading statements to make it sound like Trump was exonerated of everything. Hence, another "hoax" against Donald Trump.
Don't fall for this stuff. The "smart" people who argue for Trump are largely people who decided at some point to support him, and subsequently have refused to face the obvious evidence of his criminality. Largely because their careers now depend upon it, as politicians or influencers captured by their constituencies or audiences, and partly because they've encased themselves in a world of propaganda, apologia, and conspiracy theories allowing them to rationalize away the obvious.
Trump tried to overturn our democracy, and has intentionally poisoned the American public's faith in our institutions. Granted, a lot of the groundwork was laid before he arrived, but Trump exploited it all with a shamelessness beyond what any politician would have previously dared. He has closed the loop on the right wing alternate reality in this country, which for years had been growing outward like a gigantic bubble from corrupt fundamentalist Evangelicals, AM radio blowhards, and Fox News. The actual Republican Party and the old-school intelligencia were the only things that hadn't become completely corrupted, until Trump came along and squarely aligned everyone's incentive structures in the same direction. The only things left now are the straggling outcasts from all of these groups.
If you need more reason for alarm, check out Project 2025. Trump is no hoax. He's worse than most people realize, even most of "the #resistance".
I have spent a lot of time trying to understand the appeal of Trump (as have millions of others puzzled by how anybody could vote for him). I've spent the last 8 years spending more time that I care to admit listening to his bragging, posturing, lying, insulting, and demeaning. I have see the chaos unleashed on this country since his election, the divisions and undermining of our institutions that he drives, the hatred, the vitriol and racism, the criminality. I've learned every single thing I need to know to determine that Donald Trump is a threat to the Republic. I believe 40 of his 44 senior level advisors who refuse to endorse him. So no, I don't need to spend any more time learning anything about Donald Trump. I have seen the other side and found it lacking.
Look, I’m going to vote for Joe Biden. I will vote for a cardboard box filled with wet socks if it means keeping Donald Trump out of the White House. A comatose Joe Biden is preferable to an alert Donald Trump.
If you agree with, "his government has done a great job," and then in the same breath, agree with being "angry we don't have a better choice," it has to be explained how they belong in the same sentence. Spend some time reading about their plans for governing, Project 2025, and spend time on explaining that. It's a much bigger threat to our futures than what you're obsessing about. And while you're at it, pick up a copy of Uwe Wittstock's February 1933 to see how every assumption held on January 29, 1933 turned out to look quaint by March 1, 1933 and ancient history a month later. Let's see how these assessments read on March 1, 2025.
I think her point was clear - these last four years have worked out fine and we want to continue Biden's policies, but the Joe Biden we saw on Thursday is not up the job. Yes, he can be managed and the government will continue to function, but that's not what I (or Martha) want in a president.
Obviously, I'm well-aware of Project 2025 and, having lived through the last Trump admin, I have no desire to return to that insanity. Which is why I said I will vote for a carboard box stuffed with wet socks if that's my alternative to Trump. But I don't need to persuaded. It's the 5% of the country who are going to determine this election. What are they hearing about the debate? What are they seeing? What are they thinking? Is there a single swing voter who saw that debate and was like "Biden's my man"?
I understand that Newsweek ran a poll expressing exactly this, and forgive me, I but I will need A LOT more evidence than Newsweek's word that this is the case. By the way, I hope they're right!
Not trying to be combative here, but that's not enough. Voters have been telling pollsters *for years* that they prefer that Biden not run for re-election specifically because of his age. The Democrats' response has been essentially to scold people for not falling in line. And now that the concerns of those voters who didn't want Biden to run because of age have been laid bare in front of millions of people, simply telling them that "they must vote blue" is just more of the same. The people who are going to decide this election are not devoted partisans or news junkies who know all the vagaries of Project 2025 or whatever. And what they saw was a frail man who had trouble completing a coherent sentence and wants to be president for four more years.
PIVOOOOT!!
You Privileged Tone Deaf Motherfuckers!
For fuck sake DIMS, pivot your campaign focus from wasting time on replacing Biden and focusing like nerds on his record.
Instead…
Focus on your new battle campaign strategy book the GOP wrote for you. It’s called Project 2025. Hire more former GOP members as interpreters (like Stuart Stevens, Tim Miller, Michael Steele) instead of wasting time hiring super delegates….
Rest of essay in this link:
https://open.substack.com/pub/darryllamarkwright/p/pivoooot?r=wpdsx&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Substack needs an unlike button
Team Biden should stop treating Trump as a typical candidate. He's not. Focus on Jan 6 insurrection with Trump as its leader. He didn't accept the results. Alito and Thomas are Trump colluders and enablers of dictatorship. Trump's 2016 ties to Russia and Trump's appeasement of Putin. Trump is running for dictator allied with Putin, not President.
I think it's 168 hours.
I wish there was an emoji for agreeing while sobbing.
"This election is not about Joe Biden. I’m sorry, but it’s not. It’s about protecting the Republic from another four years of chaos, abuse, and lies. It’s about protecting American democracy from somebody who will have no qualms up blowing it up if he believes it serves his interests. It’s about holding back the Christian Nationalists Trump has aligned himself with. It’s about preserving our institutions and our alliances. "
THIS is the important part. Clutch pearls and bed-wet all y'all want, but I'll be voting to preserve ACTUAL FRIGGIN DEMOCRACY. I'll be voting for the rights of all of the women, queer and POC I know -- including my kid, who is all of the above. I'll be voting for the party that wants to make billionaires pay their fair share, rather than the conman who wants to give them even MORE tax breaks. There is no other choice. If
tRump wins, I'll see you in the gulags.
Just vote for Robert Kennedy Jr. !!
No.
There should be an eye-roll or laughy face available for this nonsense.
This is why you're a 2nd rate actor, or whatever you are at this point. You can't understand a champion mentality. Winners win. Democrats need to start working on their long game now. They've always sucked at it, that's what got us here. They've got to figure out who is next in 2028 and start shoving them to the front of the line. Right now President Biden is the only answer.
Well this is sure to change his mind. Good job!
I'm not trying to change his mind. Weak minds can't be changed.
Jesus, drink some chamomile tea and take a bath. Then go outside, go for a walk. After that, hang out with your cat, no phone or TV. Drink lots of water. When you collect yourself again, spend some time in your journal writing about how other people could have different opinions than your own, and that does not tie them to “winners” or “losers.” Take five deep breaths.
Whoa whoa whoa... I'm a 3rd rate actor! It seems like you're pretty upset and that's fine but I will remind everybody that I don't tolerate insults to anybody on here. I was going to say "least of all me," but I actually don't care that much if you insult me. I'm used to it. But I do try to keep this place as respectful as possible and I hope you can do the same.
You do know he’s going to read this, right? Why would you ever talk to anyone this way?
Yes, I do. He shared his opinion, and I responded. I see the GOP failing lockstep behind the WORST candidate, the worst man we could ever imagine, and how do Democrats respond? Whining, quitting, and general histrionics about their own President who has dragged us back from the edge of the abyss and succeeded is accomplishing more than any modern day President. They are still the same men on paper as they were before the debate. Trump says something horrifying every time he speaks. PRESIDENT Biden was over prepped to the point of exhaustion after a brutal schedule back and forth overseas, crammed him full of stats and numbers (to memorize), and clearly told to speak fast. He's better when he's just himself. It's easy to "win" a debate when you're not actually saying anything factual and you're just a carnival barker.
Also, something I haven't seen mentioned, the camera angles and staging made the President look spaced out. They had the podiums on an angle slightly facing each other so when he would turn to look at the moderators in disbelief when Trump was lying it was unflattering look.
Dems are so quick to quit. It's pathetic.
Are all "champions" also unnecessarily rude, dismissive, and condescending?
Amy, you have much on your plate, but sounds like you are persistent and have somehow managed to get some help from our bureaucratic system. Depending on where you live, if you have a Democratic Congressman for your district, don’t hesitate to ask them for help. They can get access to many agencies to address your needs. Best to you and your family.
The guy you saw Thursday is a man who is successfully leading the country.
Why isn't the media screaming about how everything Trump said was a lie?
I'm a 51 year old, auDHD diagnosed, mother of three disabled kids. Our family is currently on the brink of bankruptcy due to medical debt. My oldest is on SSDI and likely will never work. My middle is agoraphobic and hasn't left the house in about two years and I'll be back in the red tape game to see if we can secure SSDI for her; and we are struggling to get our youngest into a therapeutic day school.
I grew up pretty damn fast when I realized what cards we were dealt. I understand frustration. I understand fighting tooth and nail against a system that wants to fuck you over. Certainly others have had more difficult struggles but after all these years I've toughened up.
And now we all need to roll with the punches. No more hand wringing - like what the fuck does that get us? I could have pretended one day my neurospicy brain was going to straighten out and the world would be easy for me to navigate but a fact is a fact. It's not going to happen for me who has (semi) successfully navigated this fucked up, ableistic world we live in. It's certainly not going to happen for my kids who just cannot manage "masking to make it." So I HAVE NO CHOICE. There are days where I scream and cry alone in my car because how the hell can I protect them for the rest of my life when things are this ugly? If that fucker wins how long until they strip away the meager allowance my kid has to live on? Until the thousands of dollars of drugs we need for them to just exist will be out of reach? Until there is no where for them as adults to live safely and cared for?
But I can't cry every day; I have work to do.
I respect you, your intelligence, and your talent. You've brought me joy since I found out about The State when I was around 19 years old. My husband and I still do dance moves poached from the Saturday sketch from Stella - "Slow motion riders fly the colours of the day..." We bought your children's books for our kids. I would be a paid subscriber here but I'm no longer able to give because of said financial issues. I love reading all your essays because you make me laugh and think. I share many of them with others.
I know, I know you'll vote blue. I know you'll do what you can. I just felt the need to demonstrate where I'm coming from. No one is coming to save me and mine. We have to accept the hand we are dealt and fight until our last breath. Joe is our guy. A fact is a fact. I'm glad to have you by our side. Now let's goooooo!
So sorry you're dealing with that and absolutely no guilt about not being a paid subscriber. I make this content free with the hopes that enough people who enjoy AND are able to afford it will subscribe but if not, no worries at all. For me, it's enough to have a place to write and converse. I was wonder if I could share you post - maybe on Twitter (no names, of course). Not sure if I will or I won't but I think your post is a beautiful example of why so many people do not want Trump to win.
By all means, please share. Thank you.
You've made a compelling and cogent argument. I'm convinced as well there should be a better candidate. The job itself probably destroys health. The only reason Trump escaped so many negative aspects of the job is because he saw it as an extension of his persona and brand instead of the difficult political welding process that burns away the color from people's hair and cauterizes souls. And so I'm that way the President is up against the clock of his own spring accelerated by the gravity of the position.
I'm sold. I was sold in '20. But there wasn't another candidate and so I voted for Joe and his team. Thank Ceiling Cat for that team. Masterful work. But as far as I know its not a team position...unless it is. And that's where we're at. The team in place (read the Democratic Party and the Administration) have so far made their play. Unless a radical, fundamental change occurs we must vote for Joe. I don't think it's right, I know it isn't good for Joe the man (it's probably killing him), and the outcome might be placed in jeopardy. That's the calculus, change the candidate - risk losing, don't change the candidate - risk winning.
It didn't wear on Trump because he's lazy. That's why he accomplished so little, spending a ridiculous amount of time golfing, tweeting, watching TV, browsing social media, and traveling to rallies, instead of actually governing. Most of his energy was spent trying to break down the guardrails that constrain the executive, and weaken our institutions.
And c'mon, we all know it's a team position. Just keep in mind that if everyone is correct who wants to make it sound like Biden is really a senile old man an that this has been nefariously hidden from us all this time (I don't buy that, but ...), then that's only more confirmation that the team is what needs to be sustained.
I'm not and never have said he's senile. I'm saying the man is old, his immune system isn't as strong, his joints are worn, his epidermal layer is delicate, he doesn't keep muscle like he used to, I bet his appetite and digestion aren't the same anymore. Because of time. Because of stress. As anyone who's ever really been President has experienced instead of playacting as one.
I'm not even saying he can't do it, I'm saying that he's playing with fire. Like another great liberal that happened to be on the Supreme Court. I thought wisdom came with age.
Finally, he has my vote, but he also has my worries.
I understand. I didn't mean to imply you thought he was senile. I was just commenting on your observation about the team aspect of the presidency.
Biden's people know that releasing his delegates and opening up the convention without endorsing Harris will rip the party apart and ensure defeat. But, they also know that Harris has even a less likely path to election victory if she is the nominee.
So how about a scheme like this: Harris agrees not to throw her hat into the ring, and in return, after election day, Biden resigns. Harris is POTUS for almost two months and gets her name in the history books....
This strikes me as an awful lot of assumptions. They don't KNOW "Harris has even a less likely path to election victory," they know that confronting Joe about his frailties and convincing him to step down will be awkward, hard, and painful, and using "there are no other options" as an excuse to avoid that.
Here's what we definitely do KNOW:
While I agree with Michael that the Biden *administration* has done a rather good job over the last four years, it is undeniable that he's lost a step (or two or three). Just pull up YouTube videos of Biden's campaign speeches from 2020 to now and it is jaw-dropping.
A large majority of US voters have been telling pollsters they think Biden is too old, yet party elites dismiss this as "ageism." I'm tired of being gaslight into thinking someone holding the hardest job in the world past the age several of my grandparents were already DEAD is a good idea. Late in life, the curve of physical and mental decline (and risk of death btw) increases exponentially every year. The difference between 82 and 86 is nowhere near the same as 72 -> 76 or similar younger intervals.
Most mainstream election forecast models have Biden's odds ranging from around 50% (538) to 35% (Nate Silver independent model) to even lower (I believe the Economist model had Trump at *80%* likely to win. Keep in mind, polls overstated Democratic support in both 2016 and 2020; if a similar dynamic is playing out now we're royally fucked.
And all of this was based on data BEFORE the disastrous debate! Those clips of Biden freezing and saying "we beat Medicare" are going to play on an infinite loop of attack ads from now until November. Ain't no way the few persuadable voters left see that and think "Sign me up!" Sticking with Biden (who like Michael, I will vote for if that is my Democratic option) seems like a nearly guaranteed defeat.
Is Harris the best politician? No. But I'd take her odds over Joe.
What about others nominated at the convention? Sure, this path risks tearing the party apart if factions can't come to a consensus, but again, we are currently LOSING to a sociopath who poses an existential threat to this country.
The time to play it safe is when you're comfortably ahead. The time to throw a Hail Mary is when you're far behind. I would much rather us gamble with Candidate X and MAYBE lose than stick with Joe and almost certainly lose.
Before the debate, this was actually the scenario I expected to play out. Biden would be elected and then step down, giving Kamala the reigns. But I don't understand why you would say she'd only be president for two months? You think he'd resign BEFORE inauguration? That wouldn't make any sense because that seems like something that could legally be fought in court and with the Supreme Court as compromised as it is, she would inevitably lose
Excellent. But telling us that you are voting for wet socks rather than find out why the likes of Scott Adams et al strongly endorse Trump is just fiddling while Rome burns. You now know Fine People was a hoax. Maybe get behind the screen (of your "trusted" news sources) and see what a significant number of smart people are seeing. You may still not be convinced but at least it will be after seeing the other side.
And maybe he still might not be the best candidate - but he might be better than a juiced up old man - and a pile of wet socks
Bamba, don't buy into the "Fine People was a hoax". It wasn't. What Trump did was claim that many of the Nazis and White Nationalists at that rally were actually not Nazis and White Nationalists but very fine people trying to protect our history. The fact that many people have decided to phrase that as "he called Nazis very fine people" may be technically inaccurate and even misleading if you don't know the context.
But most people did and still do know the context, and what's telling is that it wasn't until a few years afterward that the pro-Trump punditry acted like they dug up some hidden nugget so that they could re-cast it as "Oh look, he said right there the White Nationalists should be totally condemned! It's a hoax!" We all knew he said that at the time. Nobody hid it. We also knew that he said it in his second go-around on the matter, after being criticized and browbeaten for the way he handled it in the beginning, which was to portray a Nazi rally as a completely respectable protest movement in which, sure, there were a few Nazis and bad people like that, but there were also Antifa, so it all evened out.
What Trump was criticized for at the time was his failure to unequivocally condemn a White Nationalist rally and instead try to draw a false moral equivalence, and then only, almost reluctantly, offering a condemnation after trying to claim that they accounted for a less significant portion of the protesters than the very fine Confederate history buffs who just wanted statues from the Jim Crow era preserved for posterity. It was a standard case of re-framing the controversy after the fact to claim it was "a hoax".
For the record, we saw this regularly with Trump. After what we all saw January 6th, everyone pointed to the one word in Trump's incitement speech – "peacefully!" – as proof that he didn't actually incite the crowd. "It was a hoax by anti-Trumpers!" And yet that was an obvious little cover-your-ass nugget thrown in at the end, after most people had already begun marching toward the capital in a fury, to give him some kind of plausible deniability.
When COVID popped up in China and was clearly headed our way, Trump claimed that it was no big deal and that all of the clamoring and the worrying and the fussing was just a hoax by Democrats to tank his wonderful economy and keep him from getting re-elected. So people began saying that Donald Trump claimed COVID was a Democrat hoax. His supporters then responded with, "Hey, he didn't say COVID was a hoax! He said it was a hoax that it was a big deal!" What most would call a distinction without a difference – but to Republicans, it was yet another "hoax" against Trump.
When the Mueller report came back, it documented numerous contacts between the Trump campaign and Russian nationals, and that the Trump campaign willingly received assistance from them. But Mueller didn't feel like he could make a case that Trump himself intentionally acted to assist the efforts, and so he declined to find him prosecutable for *criminal conspiracy* – a crime which has a very high bar of evidence – not collusion, which is an informal term not corresponding to an actual crime.
He did, however, all but recommend Trump be prosecuted for obstruction of justice, finding that the facts met all the requirements for a prosecutable case. But he decided from the beginning that he wouldn't recommend a prosecution regardless of what he found, because Trump was a sitting president and DOJ policy is to leave it up to Congress to initiate impeachment proceedings. Then his AG Bill Barr went to Congress two weeks before releasing the report and told a series of lies and misleading statements to make it sound like Trump was exonerated of everything. Hence, another "hoax" against Donald Trump.
Don't fall for this stuff. The "smart" people who argue for Trump are largely people who decided at some point to support him, and subsequently have refused to face the obvious evidence of his criminality. Largely because their careers now depend upon it, as politicians or influencers captured by their constituencies or audiences, and partly because they've encased themselves in a world of propaganda, apologia, and conspiracy theories allowing them to rationalize away the obvious.
Trump tried to overturn our democracy, and has intentionally poisoned the American public's faith in our institutions. Granted, a lot of the groundwork was laid before he arrived, but Trump exploited it all with a shamelessness beyond what any politician would have previously dared. He has closed the loop on the right wing alternate reality in this country, which for years had been growing outward like a gigantic bubble from corrupt fundamentalist Evangelicals, AM radio blowhards, and Fox News. The actual Republican Party and the old-school intelligencia were the only things that hadn't become completely corrupted, until Trump came along and squarely aligned everyone's incentive structures in the same direction. The only things left now are the straggling outcasts from all of these groups.
If you need more reason for alarm, check out Project 2025. Trump is no hoax. He's worse than most people realize, even most of "the #resistance".
I have spent a lot of time trying to understand the appeal of Trump (as have millions of others puzzled by how anybody could vote for him). I've spent the last 8 years spending more time that I care to admit listening to his bragging, posturing, lying, insulting, and demeaning. I have see the chaos unleashed on this country since his election, the divisions and undermining of our institutions that he drives, the hatred, the vitriol and racism, the criminality. I've learned every single thing I need to know to determine that Donald Trump is a threat to the Republic. I believe 40 of his 44 senior level advisors who refuse to endorse him. So no, I don't need to spend any more time learning anything about Donald Trump. I have seen the other side and found it lacking.
Good answer. Thanks
Appreciate your engagement.
Weird how people are made.
1 Man, 2 different opinions
PS: I like your work and have started following you on Twitter.
I will die on this hill.
Look, I’m going to vote for Joe Biden. I will vote for a cardboard box filled with wet socks if it means keeping Donald Trump out of the White House. A comatose Joe Biden is preferable to an alert Donald Trump.
Also preferable to a comatose donald trump.
You are very correct, sir or madame. Thank you for the edit. It was needed!
Raskin.
Gretchen Whitmer….it’s long past time we have a woman President!
I agree, whoever can win.
All is forgiven, Hillary. Come back. Seriously, Allison, the candidate is the one who can win. I’m wide open to alternatives.
https://www.theonion.com/cnn-cuts-to-black-as-hillary-clinton-rushes-debate-stag-1851557221
Fetterman
You do you, but I will not vote for someone who betrayed his own constituents.
Works for me.
If you agree with, "his government has done a great job," and then in the same breath, agree with being "angry we don't have a better choice," it has to be explained how they belong in the same sentence. Spend some time reading about their plans for governing, Project 2025, and spend time on explaining that. It's a much bigger threat to our futures than what you're obsessing about. And while you're at it, pick up a copy of Uwe Wittstock's February 1933 to see how every assumption held on January 29, 1933 turned out to look quaint by March 1, 1933 and ancient history a month later. Let's see how these assessments read on March 1, 2025.
I think her point was clear - these last four years have worked out fine and we want to continue Biden's policies, but the Joe Biden we saw on Thursday is not up the job. Yes, he can be managed and the government will continue to function, but that's not what I (or Martha) want in a president.
Obviously, I'm well-aware of Project 2025 and, having lived through the last Trump admin, I have no desire to return to that insanity. Which is why I said I will vote for a carboard box stuffed with wet socks if that's my alternative to Trump. But I don't need to persuaded. It's the 5% of the country who are going to determine this election. What are they hearing about the debate? What are they seeing? What are they thinking? Is there a single swing voter who saw that debate and was like "Biden's my man"?
I understand that Newsweek ran a poll expressing exactly this, and forgive me, I but I will need A LOT more evidence than Newsweek's word that this is the case. By the way, I hope they're right!
And all the day after speeches are not helping. Biden is entrenched, I fear. And I’ll be voting for him or that box o socks.
We must vote BLUE
Not trying to be combative here, but that's not enough. Voters have been telling pollsters *for years* that they prefer that Biden not run for re-election specifically because of his age. The Democrats' response has been essentially to scold people for not falling in line. And now that the concerns of those voters who didn't want Biden to run because of age have been laid bare in front of millions of people, simply telling them that "they must vote blue" is just more of the same. The people who are going to decide this election are not devoted partisans or news junkies who know all the vagaries of Project 2025 or whatever. And what they saw was a frail man who had trouble completing a coherent sentence and wants to be president for four more years.